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Gov= ernor’s Rural Development Conference
Aug= ust 15, 2007                                                =    
                                                =                          ‹#= ›
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<= /div>
<= /div>
<= /div>
Mid-Year Forecast Update 2007&= #13;
Doubletree Reid Park
<= /div>
<= /div>
<= /div>
Jun= e 6, 2007
<= /div>
<= /div>
<= /div>
Marshall J. Vest and Gerald J. Swanson
Eller College of Management= 3;
The University of Arizona
<= /div>
<= /div>
<= /div>
‹#›&= #13;
------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/pres.xml Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/xml; charset="utf-8" ------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0308.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1=
The Arizona Growth Machine:
An Economic Perspective
Prepared by William P. Patton= , PhD for
Governor's Rural Development Conference
August 15, 2007
------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/master03_image002.gif Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Type: image/gif R0lGODlhBwAKAHcAMSH+GlNvZnR3YXJlOiBNaWNyb3NvZnQgT2ZmaWNlACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAF AAgAgAAAAJSXuwIKjAEWqMiXoILRFQA7 ------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0528.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2=
Economic Overview
•Job growth is losing momentum
•Housing correction still has= a ways to go
•Real retail sales have been = flat for a year
•Population growth still high level but slowing
•Slowest growth since the last recession
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           3=
Job Growth is Slowing
•<= /span>Revisions from DES show
–= 5.4% growth statewide in both 2005 and 2006
–= PHX for ’06 up (6.0% growth)
–= TUS revised down (3.6%)
•<= /span>Construction now shedding workers
•<= /span>Manufacturing flat, information falling
•<= /span>Job growth year-on-year thru April
–= 3.7% AZ, 4.2% PHX, 3.7% TUS
------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0530.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           4=
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           5=
Economic Outlook
•Overall economy continues to lose momentum
•Housing market correction will continue at least through end of 2007&#= 13;
•<= /span>Expect “below trend” growth in 2007-08
–= Probability of recession at least 30%
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           6=
Arizona Growth Machine
------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0527.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           7=
Population Pressures
•Rapid population growth in Arizona is creating challenges for the State
–= Changing land use patterns
–= Environmental impact
–= Natural resource impact (water)
–= Urban sprawl
–= Infrastructure development
•The impact of rapid population growth is particularly challenging in rural areas of AZ
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           8=
Phoenix Driving Growth
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Phoenix is 5th=  largest city in USA
•Maricopa County= had largest population growth in USA 2000-2005 at 696,000 ne= w = residents = •Phoenix & i= ts suburbs account for 9 of top ten of the largest cities in Arizona&= #13;•Growth is impac= ting rural areas on urban fringe
<= span style=3D'visibility:hidden'>•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           9=
Rapid Growth in Arizona Population<= /div>
•Arizona was the 2nd=  fastest growing state 2000-2006 •Arizona populati= on has been growing over 3 times faster the nation’s since 1990.
•
<= span style=3D'visibility:hidden'>•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 0
Where’s AZ Growth Coming From?
2.9%
Pennsylvania&#= 13;
3.1%
New Mexico&#= 13;
3.1%
Ohio
3.2%
Wisconsin&#= 13;
3.6%
Minnesota&#= 13;
4.3%
Michigan&#= 13;
5.5%
Washington&#= 13;
6.9%
New York&#= 13;
10.4%
Illinois&#= 13;
29.6%
California&#= 13;
% of Net Migration
Net Migration
------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0516_image005.gif Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Type: image/gif R0lGODlhTQEBAXcAMSH+GlNvZnR3YXJlOiBNaWNyb3NvZnQgT2ZmaWNlACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAABM Af8AgAAAAAgICAL/jI+py+0Po5y02ouz3rz7D4biSJbmiQLqyrbuC8fyTNf2jeeyoff+DwwKcYih 8YhMInnKpvMJVRWj1KqVGLhqt1zAtAsOJ5nistn3PavXuyz7DV+l43QzuY4Pz/P8670PSLUXSKj0 V4h4NJjI+HPYCKmzGElJ81iJGTOZySnn1gnqshmKeUmaOXoaaapKmdrKyArb+DpbKGuLWJsLiMsb uPub5yvMF1xMR4xcd7z8puwM1xytBk29Nn1dZq1th/INHi4+Tl5ufo6err7OrtFNyP2udyDf+1mP l42vFb/PT++P2b2AzwASlDbwYDWDCrElbLiNIURvEx32q2joIUYu//o2KtLo0Y/EkFsukhTS8SQQ kyodjWwpCCRMJyln5mBpEwvOnDZ28rT08ucYmUKH1CzaBumTo0pf+GzagilUFk+nSglqFQ3RrDq3 cu3p9SvQqlbJTpWa1SxUtGXDim2jtmlcpWzPun0Lo+7au3hFYe0LFLDWuUgJF9Url6/gq4aFNv6J mK7ixZELTxZc+fBlwJkdb+7bGfJnvKF5Pjb9d3He0W9L5zz9OrVqv7O71r4B26Zr3azF7p6ZG7js 21eJ1/gNM3jy4cSVt0T+vPdX6CqdV2d+2/pJ6tulc+VOUnt47LXFhwR/3nta8rPNe0T/Xn1b9xvp Y4RfX75d+xX5T//Ef59+e/kHEYENAdifgIkZqBCDByH4n4KSOUgQhQFBWKCEllnoD4f7YHighpp5 iA+J9YDYoIiemSgPi++g+KCKornYDY3awFihjKjZeA2P1OB4oY6x+RgNkc4A2aGQvBm5DJPIIPmh ksI5WQyVwkBZopTLWfkLl7xgeaKW0XmZC5m2gNmimNeZOQubsKD5oprdudkKnarAWaOc49l5Cp+k 4Hmjnun5GQqhoADao6DxGdoJo5wg+qOi+TmKiqQBUlqKpQliWgmnrrCnmqergEqZphGKCgmqtJCK makZqhqLqyHCmgiturDKmawp2nqLrjHyCo+vOQILjLBBEmuPcWP/GZuksjNAWiSzUSLbB7XG4Aqa tFlaO4y2YXKbj7dpgiuQs3CJG6e5mmBLGrp5kpuMu4HCGwe9CNlbkLqr4csGvxbJm6i+TrHbGsCR +ruQwH4hfAbD3jgckcJREeybwdFCLAbG82gMBsddQHukxSF7zJHITVI8nclPovydylWyvJ7EVMHc lsyekFySy1fSbJfNjOncJdBf8ryXz14QnZjRIJ+sNNKSNY3zP1ALXSbVZzpt2dRNa+1z1CJ5bQXY VSy9Mtc2ix0T2lGoDQXZL5stM9tLYa0Z3BLLTRPdntmtMN5NuL0z3wL7nRHhQwmur+FL6C0a4uoq /hHkRkhuFOOo8TluLuUoWR4b5s5qHgTgQXuuLOgrcc4b6caZ7hLrWqnenNVtoi4c7NnJ/ibty9le Hu516h4d7+35fifw1wkfKvF9Gt8d8qU63yr0uUqfLfXtWl8w9hVrnzL3LXsfc9fMjwd+zeK73gP6 koyfXvk9n6/8n/EXyn587hcN/9b5i39/0vufPb9D1S8//Xva/+IWwEYNMEAFzNoB75bARy0wQQ2s 2wP7FsFKqe8mGczUBrFQwb1dcHAd7NQEIxTCxo0wcSX81Adx08JRvRAsKbzcCh8Xw1SdMEM17NwN M5fDVbVjiEQsohGPiMQkKnGJTFRHAQAAOw== ------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0517.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 1
AZ Gr= owth Is Not Distributed Equally
-9.5%
-809
8,547
7,738
Greenlee County&#= 13;
0.5%
171
33,489
         33,660
Graham County&#= 13;
1.7%
874
51,335
           52,209
Gila County
20.2%
1,035,686
5,130,632
6,166,318
Arizona&#= 13;
24.2%
40,497
167,517
         208,014
Yavapai County&#= 13;
24.5%
38,003
155,032
193,035
Mohave County&#= 13;
50.8%
91,332
179,727
         271,059
Pinal County
%Δ Pop
Δ Pop
2000 Pop
2006 Pop
 
------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0517_image006.gif Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Type: image/gif R0lGODlh8QEAAXcAMSH+GlNvZnR3YXJlOiBNaWNyb3NvZnQgT2ZmaWNlACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAQDv Af4AgAAAAAAAAAL/jI+py+0Po5y02ouz3rz7D4biCJTmiabqyrbuC8fyTNf2jef6zvf+Dwz+DMKi 8YhMKpfMpvMJfRGj1Kr1is1qt1zVtAsOi8fksln4PavX7Lb7jUzD5/S6/V6W4/f8vv+vowc4SFho WCd4qLjI2FiV6BgpOUl5A1mJmak5ebnp+QnK1xlKWmqaF3CqusoKNtoKGyvr8zpre4vbUpvL2zu7 6xssXAo8bHxcWYy8zHyo3AwdvfcsXW3dRn2tvR2Wzf0N/pgaTl4u5m2erk470u7+Dh8vP09fb3+P P7G+z9+E3g8w4Ip/AgsKJGgw4T6EChuWY+gwIjeIEitWo2gxIzOM/xo7DuPoMSQvkCJL/hpnMuU3 kipbmmLpMuYnmDJrYqJpM2cknDp7KuLpM+ggoEKLikJpNKkqokqbvmHqNKoaqFKrjqFqNSsXrFq7 XuHqNSwUsGLLLiFrNq0RtGrbDkHqNu5TuHLrTqVrN+9VvHr7buXrN/BXwIILjyVsOPFZxIobr2Xs OPJbyZSTsK1s9zJmuZo3u+3sWS3o0GZHkxZr+rTX1Kq1sm5t9TVsqbJnO61tWynu3EZ38xbq+7fP 4MJ1Ei9u8zhymcqXu2zuXCX06CanUxdp/brH7No1cu9u8Tt4ieLHOyxvXiH69AbXsz8I+b1g9/L7 0a+/MD5+vff3p//r799D+gXI2YAEfmbggaIlqGBpDDaI2oMQribhhK5VaGFsGGZI24Yc3ubhh7qF KGJvJJYI3IkoDqfiisa16GJyMMbI3Iw0PmfjjdLlqGN1PPaI3Y9AbifkkN4VaWR4SCZJ3pJMnufk k+pFKWV7VFYJH5YaalkVgFzC4uWXrIQp5lJXlqkOmWgSc+aaArppIpxFqSmnJ3TWqcmdeN7U5p7a 6OknJ30GetGghEYD6KGNJKroIow26oyhkCLz6KSEVGopIJhm6semnB71aUmehnrHqKQiIumpuZiq KhysturGq7CyIeusd9laUa24orJrRLr2ek6qwK7y67BdFGvsFsj4JpvFsswO9myW0QLk7LRRVGvt E9hm64+w3Obp7bd8iptmuOQKeq4526b7GLvkrOtuEPDGOxm9E5lrb6T5bjPvvoHg6+9QAAf8R78E 22DwwTQkrLAMDDcMw8MQuyDxxCxUbLEXA2dMB8Ycn+DxxyWELDLJH5vMMcoZq2wxyxO7DDHMDcus MM0H20wwzgHr7C/P+/qcL9D2Ck0v0fEa7S7S7CqdLtPnOk0u1OJK/S3V3FqdLdbWaj0t19F6/SzY zIqdLNnGmj0s2sCq3Svbu7qNK9y2yj0r3bDa3Srequp9Kt+k+h0q4J8Kzmk+hh+OeOKKL854444/ UAAAOw== ------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0518.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 2
AZ Fastest Growing Places
124.5%
16,879
13,556
           30,435
Marana
162.9%
30,809
18,911
           49,720
Goodyear
218.1%
67,292
30,848
           98,140
Surprise
273.6%
23,248
8,497
           31,745
Buckeye
328.5%
24,996
7,609
           32,605
El Mirage
333.0%
14,374
4,316
           18,690
Queen Creek
456.3%
14,793
3,242
           18,035
Sahuarita
1,642.9%
24,348
1,482
           25,830
Maricopa City&#= 13;
%Δ Pop
Δ Pop
2000 Pop**
2006 Pop*
 
*AZ DES   = **Census
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 3
Future Projections for
Arizona Population
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 4
Population Density, 2000
Source: Maricopa Association of Governments
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 5
Population Density, 2050
Source: Maricopa Association of Governments
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AKKKKACiiigAooooAKKKKACiiigAooooAKKKKACiiigAooooAKKKKACiiigAooooAKKKKACiiigA ooooAKKKKACiiigAooooAKKKKACiiigD/9k= ------=_NextPart_01C7E400.0281C360 Content-Location: file:///C:/0C4B54D3/ResearchForecast3_files/slide0526.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" Slide 1
Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 6
Arizona Rural Challenges
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 7
Arizona Rural Issues
•= Changing land use (rural to urban)
•= Income
•= Water/natural resource availability
•= Job availability
•= Infrastructure development
•= Education quality
•= Poverty
•= Environmental issues
•= Local tax base
•= Rapid population growth
•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 8
Towns Bypassed by Transportation
•In the past, rural areas were concerned about a lack of growth opportunities
•Transpo= rtation access
–Stageco= ach
–River C= hanges Course
–Railroa= ds
–Highway= s
–Interst= ates
•Low com= modity prices <= /span>
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           1= 9
Environmental Issues
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Glen Canyon Dam=
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•I-10 bypass = ;
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•San Pedro River Conservation
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Protected speci= es
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Transmission li= ne right of way
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•New mining operations
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Air and water quality
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.09%'>•Water and natur= al resource availability
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 0
Water Issues
•<= /span>Declining water tables
•<= /span>Colorado River allotment
•Switch from agricultural to urban usage
•Assured water supply requirements (rules are different for rural and urban areas)
•<= /span>Sustainable water use
–
•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 1
Decline of Agriculture Land Use
•<= /span>Arizona’s agricultural land in decline
–= Amount of land on farms is falling
•= 1957      45 million acres
•= 2005      26.2 million acres
–= 48 percent decline in farm land in 50 years
•Higher valued urban uses will continue to crowd out agricultural land use
•<= /span>Agriculture must compete for water
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 2
Rural Growing Pains:
Case Studies
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Industrial Base=
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Rapid Growth= 3;
•Infrastructure = and Natural Resources
<= span style=3D'visibility:hidden'>•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 3
Greenlee County:
One Industry Economy
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Mining is major industry
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Mining activity= is cyclical
•Employment swin= gs with health of the mining industry
<= span class=3DBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.31%'>•Industrial base= is undeveloped
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 4
Sierra Vista:
 Holding the Fort
•Fort Huachuca is= major employer in Sierra Vista (13,098 FTE)
•Economic impact is significant
–25% of = jobs in Cochise County result from presence of Fort Huachuca
–Fort Sp= ent $830.6 million in Cochise County in 2005
•Fort has “zero balance” water pumping program
•Efforts= being made to avoid BRAC
•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 5
Mohave County:
Rapid Development=
•Recently major Las Vegas developers have been buying large parcels of land for residential and commercial development
•Their motivation includes:
•Inexpensive land
•Proximity to Las Vegas
•New Hoover Dam bypass bridge
•Retiring baby boomers
•
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Governor’s Ru= ral Development Conference =
August 15, 2007                                               =     
                                               =                           2= 6
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